Protest Vote

                                                            Protest Vote

The coming general election in the UK has two aspects to it. Obviously the most important one is who will form the government and the result is such that it will be one of the two main parties.

The other sub text is what will happen to the parties of protest or the third party. Historically this role was filled by the Liberal Democratic Party. However the Libdems as they are usually referred to here are for the most part thoroughly discredited by being part of the governing coalition so their role in this election is likely to be a large amount of contraction with large numbers of their MPs being defeated.

This has opened up a vacuum in the electoral process and the most likely result will b e the opening up of spaces for new parties. Two parties are likely to be the beneficiaries though with the first past the post electoral system they will struggle to win a greatly increased number of seats.

The two parties most set to benefit will be UKIP and the Greens.

UKIP have performed impressively in some of the recent by-elections. This is not likely to happen too the same extent in  general election as by-elections are very commonly used for protest votes with many of these “protesters” going back to their normal allegiance at election time. Many papers are suggesting that UKIP’s bubble has finally burst. This is unlikely. It does retain a significant groundswell of support which is not likely to dissipate at a general election though they are likely to perform less well at the general election.

However they are likely to become a significant force. One factor in their rise was the main parties trying to talk tough on immigration which was a bad strategy for them as it enhanced UKIP’s importance by reminding people of the problem. The Conservatives particularly fell for this line and now they focus on other policies. At the next election UKIP is likely to remain a significant force though it is difficult to see them winning a large number of seats

The Green Party has also made inroads and has been particularly successful at picking up disillusioned Liberal Democrat voters. They already have one MP but for similar reasons to UKIP will find it difficult to increase their tally of seats.

One aspect that has not really been mentioned though is that the next parliament is likely to have a different flavour as previously the main competitor for votes with the main parties was the Liberal Democrats who define themselves as equidistant for both main parties. What will happen now is that both main parties are going to have to look over their shoulders at the competition. The Conservatives will be nervously look over their shoulders at UKIP as they have competition on the right and Labour will look over their shoulders at the Green Party on their left. This is likely to pull politics in a much more radical direction and will send a message to the main parties that they cannot take their core vote for granted.

Added to this will be the fact that Scotland is likely to vote differently from the rest of the UK and its third party the Scottish National Party is likely to do very well. Historically a Labour stronghold Scotland is likely to elect a large contingent of SNP MPs and it is Scotland which is likely to be the place where the third party does particularly well having built on and expanded its support during the 2014 referendum on Independence. One thing is certain politics will not be the same again!

The silent killer

                                                The Silent Killer

One of the truisms of the modern age is that everybody is responsible for their own destiny. However one field where things have to move on is the field of metal health. Mental health is one of the great problems of the age. It is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide

For a society that generally stigmatizes people with mental health problems they are surprisingly common. According to MIND the national mental health charity one in four people will experience a mental health problem each year. This is a fairly staggering statistic!

Yet in charity collections MIND and mental health charities lag further behind others.  Our culture sees mental illness often as a threat.

While the numbers of People with mental health problems who engage in unprovoked attacks on people is small the stigma remains. Mental health is associated with individuals being dangerous and unpredictable.

This makes it very difficult to successfully reintegrate mental health users into the society. Most programs of education do not cater for this and there is vey little maneuver room in most employment contracts to allow or people being ill for part of the ear. In this respect many mental health users have great problems with the system and successfully integrating themselves within society.

For a large part of the British population mental illness is a fact of life. One in four of the population will experience a mental health problem in the course of a year. Mental illness has a major effect on the quality of life of the individual concerned. Although only a killer if it leads to suicide or self harm and despite the Brits looking down on Scandinavian countries Britain has a much higher suicide rate than they do and its rates of self harming are among the highest in the world.

What can be done to sort out this problem? In most respects the question comes down to better support for sufferers in what is increasingly an overlooked epidemic. The consequences for society are quite great as a lot of talent is overlooked. For some people the experience of mental health problems can be positive spurring them to do things with their lives. In this respect excluding about a quarter of our population from meaningful activity is not an option.

How does a society deal with this epidemic? In Britain mental health services do exist but one of the problems thrown up was the fact that in the eighties all the institutions closed to be replaced by care in the community. This however  meant that a lot of people who had become institutionalized ended up on the streets. Mostly community based care does work with some significant exceptions. The perception of users is quite mixed with  many having significant complaints about the way they have been dealt with by the system.

The problem of mental health is an epidemic that will not go away and in this the United Kingdom is not significantly different from most Western countries. How we deal with it will be one of the significant challenges of this century!

Fitness in Middle Age

                                                Fitness in Middle age

 

One of the problems of generational thinking is that twenty years ago for instance sport was considered something that young people did. In your twenties you played sport such as cricket or football. In your thirties you still played a little but the interest was fading and by our forties you gave it up.

The problem with this approach was that exercise as a way of fighting many of the problems associated with aging was never considered. People in their forties lived entirely sedentary lives, developed their beer bellies and forgot about sport completely. However nothing could be further from the truth as modern research is indicating that fitness is a goal that has to be pursued to middle age and beyond.

For one thing Exercise is now recommended by doctors to fight some of the modern conditions such as high blood pressure and obesity. These already take a toll on the society and make or a very different outlook as health services are stretched to breaking point dealing with the consequences of our unhealthy lifestyles.

The problem now is about spreading the message and there is an increasing amount of evidence that it is taking time to get through.  For instance two thirds of the adult male population over 20 is considered to be overweight or obese. The incidence in the female population is a bit lower but not much. The fact that exercise also has an effect on other problems as well such as the control of depression in many cases makes it imperative that these ideas are changed.

One of the problems is actually going to be to make it easier for people to access gyms and swimming pools and to promote the idea of regular exercise.  In this the educators still have a long way to go in terms of changing attitudes for the general population of the country.

The incidence of obesity in children is also rising which is also going to make a ticking time bomb of the society with the risk that these children will go on two develop obesity related conditions such as obesity and diabetes.

In avoiding these conditions diet plays a part but exercise has to some extent been the Cinderella and attitudes will have to change. A lot of preventative health will have to focus on changing entrenched attitudes and making physical exercise more acceptable.

Among certain groups of people usually on the higher end of the socioeconomic scale there is evidence that this is happening. However there is still a long way to go!

 

 

 

 

Christmas in britain

                                                Christmas in Britain

In a country that is becoming ever more secular the traditional British obsession with Christmas becomes more and more difficult to understand. Along with the commercial fest it provides more and more justification for a celebration in the midst of the dismal world that beckons outside with its wintry weather.

Christmas is signaled by a spate of office parties and most firms will often have a Christmas party for their employees. This usually brings the refrain that more is needed in January but of course by this time other forces are at work and it is forgotten. Drunken and disgraceful behavior is usually laughed off which is quite fortunate for the many who do over indulge.

At the same time commercialism is rampant with the average person not really being able to describe the reason for the celebration in an increasingly secular country. In fact it often appears more like a folk festival.

At the beginning of December Christmas lights go up in all the main centres. Most towns have them ad many individuals plan their own lights as well. Often you will see displays that are privately made on the theme of merry Christmas.

However there is a down side as well as the whole country effectively shuts down for this period and in many places you will get the refrain, ”Oh we will sort it out in the new year”  In many cases Christmas presents are being bought in August and there is little doubt that the running will be made for a Christmas season soon after the commercial fests of Halloween and Guy Fawkes night are over.

Christmas is very much a family time and often there are times when for those without close family it can be very lonely. A surge of charities try to help but their resources are limited. There was one initiative called Crisis at Christmas which tried to bring homeless people in over the Christmas period. That included mainly people who were sleeping rough. It begs the question however of what happens to these people the rest of the time.

Another concomitant is that many family fight start around this time. The family get together often turns sour and the fights continue into the new year and beyond.

In London itself the entire public transport system shuts down so all there is is some taxis charging ruinous prices for the business. The moral of the story is of course that you have to be where you aim to be the day before. After the great fest the world wakes up to the fact that new year is dawning. After the initial heady element of New Year ’s Eve the country generally settles into a mood of depression. Most people are broke financially having maxed out on the credit cards to pay for the Christmas splurge. Even the lengthening days bring little cheer and or many people January and February are the most depressing months of the ear. Spirits only seem to lift a bit in March with the arrival of the spring.

Beer and Swimming

                                                Beer and swimming

As I travel quite a lot I often encounter things to do and being passionately fond of swimming I often try swimming in pools in towns I travel to. Forget about the gym as in England particularly most gyms will charge you a large fee for an induction before they let you use their equipment.

At the moment there is a lot of focus on healthy living and I thought it interesting to try a comparison of the price ratio of having a swim to having a beer in three countries I have been to. It all started when I had a conversation with a Czech friend who bemoaned the fact that the price of a swim if you are not a member of a particular scheme was exactly the same in the Czech Republic as in The UK but people there earn less.

However I thought it instructive to compare the prices of having a swim in four countries with the price of having a beer. At the moment the government belabors us nonstop about the nation drinking too much s so this would be instructive.

Of course having taught maths before I realize tables can be difficult to take in so I have tried to keep them to a minimum. Obviously prices can vary according to the establishment and my recent experience in Poland is just based on one town Katowice. I do not make any pretense to scientific scholarship in this but it is quite interesting and bears out the contention that healthy living can be more expensive.  Figures have been rounded.

Country	Average price of a beer	Average price of a swim	Ratio of cost swim:beer
United Kingdom	£3	£5	1.7 : 1
Czech Republic	29 Kc	99 Kc	3.4 : 1
Serbia	90 din	250 din	2.8 : 1
Poland	5 zl	50 zl	10 : 1

On this basis Poland clearly comes out the worst and the UK not to badly with Serbia being slightly better than the Czech Republic.

Breastfeeding Scandal

                        Breast feeding scandal

A recent ruckus has erupted in London over quite a strange issue. One of London’s most opulent hotels Claridges apparently asked a breastfeeding mother to cover up. This has united a whole series of disparate elements into the campaign. Outraged mothers are holding demonstrations outside the hotel. To cap it all other politicians have tended so far to stay silent but the leader of the UK Independence party has appeared to back the staff.

The cries of outrage have been swirling round the internet and the hotel has been forced to say that they do in fact allow breastfeeding.

It has emerged as one of the small issues of the day and the papers are full of the legal niceties saying that a ban is apparently discriminatory.

Of course this is a minefield as some people claim to be offended by the sight. Personally I find it a beautiful sight and cannot imagine anybody really objecting. It symbolizes to me a mother’s love and I am not offended by the sight myself. However it has certainly started a small storm and the hotel is really being forced to clarify its position under the weight of protests and publicity

Third party Issues

                                    Third party issues

Now with a second by election victory for UKIP the inquest continues and all the papers and media are looking at and studying the results as well as the political class. In many ways the appeal of UKIP is due to several factors, Immigration being one of the most commonly cited ones. This tends to ignore the question of what is the real issue.

Many politicians of the mainstream parties are now trying to emulate UKIP in their foreign policy including the Prime Minister. This of course ensures that the issue of immigration remains in the news benefitting UKIP all the more.

In the case of UKIP its rise cannot simply be explained by the number of immigrants but something broader which is a mounting anger at the political class. This is a current which runs deep in our society. The mainstream parties namely the Conservatives and Labour both have the disadvantages of power, the Conservatives being in power now and Labour having fairly recently been in power. The traditional third party, the Liberal Democrats is tainted by association with   being in government now and can no longer act as a lightning rod for dissent.

In this way UKIP is taking votes from major parties with a steady stream of cynicism about their behaviour in office. One of the first key setters of disillusionment with the current political class was the expenses scandal in which MPs were found to have stolen from the system in quite large ways. The result was a few MPs from both major parties have been sent to prison. However all of them were at it from all major parties! The minor parties of course remain untainted by this scandal. UKIP however as far as expenses claims are concerned have not shown themselves to be behind on this as far as the European parliament is concerned where they have representation with one of their members also being convicted of abusing the system.

The general feeling at this time of recession has been a lot of anger at the ruling parties. They are seen to be under the control of a metropolitan elite that is far removed from the people they represent. The idea of MPs telling people to tighten their belts while voting themselves above inflation pay rises has not been lost on the British Voter. In general cynicism about the major parties rules! Add to this the fact that the major parties are seen as not being every different from each other there is even more cynicism about them.

On both counts the major parties are seen ever more as two sides of the same coin and there is a drift of voters to UKIP and now on the other side to the Green Party which is also enjoying a surge in the polls. The result of this of course will be at the next general election probably be an increase in the vote of these two parties at the expense of the mainstream parties