Clacton and UKIP

Clacton and UKIP

Now that the by-election has occurred the papers are full of analysis of what the result will mean. Will it be a new political force establishing itself or will it be a flash in the pan? Many columnists predicted UKIP was finished after the last European elections arguably their high water mark. However the fact that they have won a safe Tory seat and managed to push Labour to within 700 votes of losing in the other by-election speaks of a lot more than just that.

One of the problems for a third force in a country which historically has been the preserve of two main parties who alternate in government is that it is very hard for a third party to make an impression and to break the mould. Historically the British are divided into two major tribes Labour and Conservative and usually people will sport the trappings of which particular tribe they belong to. Of course politics is not a subject necessarily discussed.. These allegiances are however becoming more fluid

Normally the floating voters tend to determine which major arty winds power and the constituency first past the post does not tend to favour challengers. They usually have to concentrate their votes enough in a constituency to win a majority or plurality of the vote enabling their candidate to get elected. The systems in use for European elections, Scottish ad Welsh parliament elections and the London assembly elections are much kinder to smaller parties.

Several factors point however to a change in this view. One is percentage of the vote. If you look back at previous elections a different pattern emerges. In 1950 the two major parties gained 86 % of the vote between them. In 2010 they only managed 65%. This points to an increasing share of the vote being taken by third parties. In addition four way marginals are becoming increasingly common. A case in point is that in 1992 ,the constituency of Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber elected its Liberal Democrat winner with only 26% of the vote over his SNP,  Labour and Conservative challengers.. A third party can be successful in winning a constituency with 25% of the vote!

Another fact is that or the first time since the second world war the country has a coalition government as none of the major parties got enough to govern outright. The trend would seem to show that this is becoming the norm. Probably at the next election if the polls are anything to go by the major parties will struggle to win enough seats to govern on their own

What form the new challengers will take is difficult to assess. Historically the third party was the Liberal democrats who were mostly disaffected Tories who couldn’t bring themselves to vote labor and Disaffected Labour who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory. A lot of their supporters have left in disgust after their coalition with the Tories and their vote now struggles to reach double figures

Against ths can be se the rise of UKIP a party which capitalizes on fear of immigration, always a problem when people struggle to find jobs in a recession and also on the overbearing European Bureaucracy. However it also capitalizes on one thing which is the general disenchantment with the political class which runs very deep at this time. The Coalition government is very unpopular and Labour was in government recently.

this can be set the fact that another minority party the Green is rising in the polls and outpolling the Liberal Democrats’ in many constituencies which means the rise of another party. How this will translate into a general election is anybody’s guess. However the normal scare tactic used by the Prime minister of Vote UKIP and get Labour” does not seem to be working. Most UKIP voters are determined to have their say come what may and are no longer vulnerable to fears of getting the other.

One thing is certain : Four of five party politics is here to stay!